Ripple XRP Analysis: Why Recovery Lags

XRP is trading near $1.36 after losing the $1.40 support level on May 18. Over the past week, the token has slipped about 5%, while its 90-day return remains negative at roughly 3.31%. That makes XRP the only top-five cryptocurrency still in the red across this period.

Bitcoin has gained around 14.79% over 90 days, Ethereum is up about 8.80%, and BNB has added nearly 4.76%. This difference shows that XRP has missed the broader market recovery that has helped other major assets. The main reasons are weak follow-through after rallies, stronger reactions to negative sentiment, and limited sustained demand.

Ripple XRP Analysis
Ripple XRP Analysis

Why XRP Underperformed Other Major Assets

XRP has reacted more sharply to bearish pressure than Bitcoin, Ethereum, or BNB. Since 2020, major downturns have hit XRP with stronger selling pressure. In May 2025, the token struggled with weak momentum, dropping 1% before recovering nearly 3% in June.

The picture changed in July 2025 when XRP surged 35% and reached a crypto cycle high near $3.65. That rally came before Ripple’s $50 million SEC settlement, but buyers could not defend the bullish breakout. Profit-taking pulled the price below $3, and XRP ended Q3 near $2.84.

The October 2025 crash exposed the same weakness. XRP dropped 35.4% in Q4, compared with Bitcoin’s 23.2% decline, Ethereum’s 28.4% fall, and BNB’s 14.4% pullback. The token also lost 27.1% in Q1 2026 as geopolitical tensions pushed traders toward safer assets. Still, XRP entered Q2 with weaker momentum.

So far, XRP has gained only 2% in Q2. Bitcoin climbed nearly 13%, BNB advanced 5%, and Ethereum stayed flat. XRP’s core problem is simple: it rallies on catalysts but struggles to hold gains once profit-taking begins.

What Market Structure Shows

The pattern matters because XRP is not lacking attention. Instead, the issue is durability. Traders enter around headlines, but they exit quickly when volume cools. This creates sharp candles without deeper support. Until spot demand, whale accumulation, and institutional flows improve together, XRP may continue underperforming stronger large-cap coins during recovery phases.

CLARITY Act Could Become a Major Catalyst

The CLARITY Act may become XRP’s most important 2026 catalyst. After the Senate Banking Committee cleared the bill with a 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14, XRP rallied from $1.42 to $1.54, gaining nearly 9% intraday.

That reaction was stronger than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB during the same window. This shows that XRP still responds powerfully to regulatory progress. If the bill clears the Senate, advances through the House, and reaches the president’s desk before the July deadline, XRP could build stronger momentum toward the $2 level.

Clarity Act Impact On XRP
Clarity Act Impact On XRP

Sustained Demand Must Support the Rally

Regulatory news can spark a rally, but demand must keep it alive. Previous XRP moves, including the January 2025 rally and July 2025 breakout, faded as buyers failed to absorb profit-taking. If ETF inflows return above $100 million per week and institutional demand improves, XRP may have a better chance of retesting its $3.65 cycle high.

Conclusion

XRP’s 90-day weakness comes from fading rallies, heavy sentiment pressure, and inconsistent buying support. The token still has strong upside potential if regulatory clarity improves and demand remains steady. However, XRP must hold key levels such as $1.45, $1.50, and eventually $2 to prove that its momentum can become a lasting trend instead of another short-lived spike. For now, confirmation matters more than excitement, especially while Bitcoin dominance keeps altcoins under pressure.

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