The crypto market was anticipating a major catalyst from the U.S. non-farm payrolls data scheduled for Friday, but this is now uncertain due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is entering its fourth day.
Summary
- The crypto market was expecting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to influence its movement.
- Key coins such as Zora, Optimism, and EigenLayer are approaching significant token unlock events.
- The fourth quarter, historically the most positive for cryptocurrencies, has now begun.
Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the September jobs report will show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 4.3%. This data is critical for the crypto market as it could impact the Federal Reserve‘s future interest rate decisions. A weaker jobs report could be favorable for cryptocurrencies by increasing the chances of a rate cut in the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, and Austan Goolsbee, indicate caution about reducing rates too quickly due to ongoing inflation. As a result, disappointing job numbers may provide more support for a policy shift toward easing.
Major Token Unlocks
The crypto market has also been closely monitoring several key token unlocks this week, with a total of around $280 million in unlocked tokens, according to data from DeFi Llama. Significant unlocks include:
- Zora: $9.35 million worth of tokens, representing 4.6% of its circulating supply.
- Sui: $174 million worth of tokens, or 1.5% of its supply.
- Other notable unlocks include tokens from EigenLayer, Immutable X, Orderly, and Optimism.
Q4 – Historically Strong for Crypto
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has seen an average return of 85% in Q4 since 2013, with a median return of 52%. Ethereum, since 2016, has posted an average Q4 return of 23%. Given the recent market correction, these historical trends suggest a potential rebound in Q4.
Looking forward, Q4 brings several key events that could drive prices higher, including:
- Possible approval of altcoin ETFs
- Anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve
- The highly awaited Ethereum Fusaka upgrade
These factors set the stage for a potentially strong finish to the year in the crypto market.
