Quick Take
- CryptoQuant says onchain indicators now point to a bitcoin bear market, as demand remains soft.
- The firm highlights that bitcoin has dropped under its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022.
- With these signals in place, CryptoQuant expects bitcoin could test the $70,000–$60,000 support zone.
CryptoQuant says bitcoin could fall to $60,000 because onchain data suggests the current decline is intensifying. According to the firm, the slowdown now appears more severe than the early part of the 2022 bear market, largely due to weaker demand signals.
Bearish Pressure is Building
CryptoQuant reports its Bull Score Index has fallen to zero, which is the most bearish reading possible. The firm notes bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in early October when the index was much stronger. After a major liquidation wave in mid-October, the index turned negative and continued dropping as bitcoin’s price kept sliding.
Because of this shift, CryptoQuant points to $70,000 to $60,000 as the next major downside area. The firm also says the move to the lower end of that range may not happen quickly, since multiple support levels sit in between—especially near $69,000 and the estimated production cost zone around $65,000–$70,000.
Why the Crypto Market Appears Structurally Weak
CryptoQuant describes the broader market as showing structural weakness, driven by several factors:
- Institutional demand has reversed: The firm says U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs were strong net buyers around this period last year, but in 2026 they have turned into net sellers, cutting holdings instead of adding. CryptoQuant believes this shift creates a meaningful demand shortfall compared with 2025, increasing selling pressure.
- Retail demand stays muted: CryptoQuant notes a key U.S. pricing premium indicator has remained negative since mid-October. Historically, sustained bull runs often match a positive premium fueled by U.S. demand. The firm says that pattern is not showing up now.
- Liquidity is getting tighter: CryptoQuant says stablecoin growth has turned negative, which may signal contracting liquidity—something commonly seen during bearish cycles.
- Long-term demand growth has dropped sharply: Over the past four months, CryptoQuant reports bitcoin’s annual spot demand growth fell from about 1.1 million BTC to around 77,000 BTC, a decline of roughly 93%. The firm suggests this means much of this cycle’s demand expansion already happened earlier.
Technical Trend Supports the Bearish Case
CryptoQuant adds that the chart trend also supports its outlook. Bitcoin has slipped below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, which the firm treats as a major trend confirmation. CryptoQuant says bitcoin has declined about 23% over 83 days since breaking below that level on Nov. 12, 2025, which it compares as worse than the same early period of the 2022 bear market.
What This May Mean Next
CryptoQuant believes the $70,000–$60,000 range is the most important support zone if bearish momentum continues. If buyers hold this area, bitcoin may stabilize and attempt a rebound. However, if support breaks and weakness persists, CryptoQuant says downside risk remains high, with $60,000 standing out as a major level the market could eventually revisit.
