The Metaplanet stock has dropped sharply, breaking below a key support level after the company’s net asset value (mNAV) slipped beneath the total value of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time. This signals rising bearish momentum and suggests that further declines could follow in the near future.
Key Highlights
- Support Breakdown: The Metaplanet stock price slid below the important ¥500 level, hitting its weakest point since May.
- Death Cross Signal: A bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) confirms the ongoing downtrend.
- Technical Weakness: Chart patterns point to sustained selling pressure in the short term.
Metaplanet Faces Decline as mNAV Drops
The Metaplanet stock price fell to ¥482 — nearly 75% lower than its yearly high — erasing a large portion of its previous market gains. The drop reflects a broader cooling in investor interest toward Bitcoin treasury companies, as several firms holding digital assets have also seen steep declines recently.
The company’s mNAV ratio, which measures its market value compared to its Bitcoin reserves, has fallen below 1. This means Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings are now worth more than the company’s enterprise value — a clear sign of reduced investor confidence. Normally, a strong mNAV gives Bitcoin-holding firms better access to capital, but the reversal suggests growing skepticism about the company’s valuation.
Adding to this pressure, Metaplanet appears to have paused its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Analysts suggest this slowdown could be linked to shrinking premiums and profit-taking after the stock’s massive 4,000% rally earlier in the year. Rising share dilution has also played a role, with outstanding shares increasing from 181 million in 2021 to around 654 million, weighing further on market sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Further Declines Possible
From a technical standpoint, the Metaplanet stock remains in a clear downward trend. The price recently fell below the ¥500 mark, nullifying a potential double-bottom formation that might have signaled recovery.
The stock also broke down from a previously forming wedge pattern — often a bullish setup — which now signals that buyers have lost control of momentum. The appearance of a death cross, where the short-term 50-day EMA crosses below the long-term 200-day EMA, reinforces a strong bearish trend.
If sellers continue to dominate, the next critical support level lies near ¥300, corresponding to the stock’s low from April.
Market Sentiment
Overall, the Metaplanet stock continues to show weakness as technical patterns turn negative and investor confidence declines. The combination of a falling mNAV ratio, slower Bitcoin accumulation, and the confirmed death cross pattern indicates that the bearish phase could persist.
Unless market sentiment improves or Bitcoin prices recover significantly, Metaplanet may continue facing downward pressure in the coming weeks.
